Committee: World Health Organization

Topic:  Avian influenza and its potential effects on human populations

Author: Heather Tarnowski B.Sc.H., M.Sc.

 

Committee Background                                                                                                               
            The World Health Organization (WHO) was established on April 7, 1948, as a United Nations body to ensure “the attainment by all peoples of the highest possible level of health”, where health is defined by the WHO constitution as “a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”.                                                                                                                                
             The World Health Organization is governed through the World Health Assembly, which is composed of 192 member states.  The Assembly serves to approve the WHO program, the budget and to make decisions on questions of policy.                                
             The WHO coordinates many efforts internationally to advocate the highest attainable standard of well-being as a fundamental human right.  For this reason, WHO supports the development and maintenance of health care systems within member nations that are of adequate quality, affordable for the population, and cover populations inhabiting both cities and rural areas, equally.                                                                                                          
           The World Health Organization serves many functions, a few listed here.  To know more about the work of the WHO, several resources are listed at the end of the paper.                                                                                                                                        
            Perhaps the best-known function of the WHO is the coordination of international efforts to eradicate infectious diseases.  Not only do the efforts save lives, but it also helps to keep public health funds available for other purposes.  In 1980, the WHO certified the global elimination of smallpox.  The disease affected up to 15 million and killed approximately 2 million people each year internationally. 
             On an annual basis, WHO makes recommendations on the best, and most cost-effective training for health care providers (especially doctors and nurses), using both traditional and contemporary education techniques.                                                                                                   
             Ensuring internationally acceptable standards and developing recommendations on the quality, effectiveness and safety of drugs is another important aspect of the duties of the organization.  The WHO provides a model list of essential drugs, which aids national authorities in ensuring that the drugs are affordable and accessible to the individuals requiring them.                                                                                                 
             Prevention and control of chronic non-communicable diseases is another facet of the organization.  Long-term studies within several nations involve monitoring of trends and risk factors in cardiovascular diseases, and also serve to monitor the public health interventions.  Recommendations are also developed in regards to the most effective approaches to control hereditary diseases, diabetes, cancer, and asthma.                                  
             The last function to mention is the mandate for the WHO to prepare recommendations and guidelines on acceptable levels of various chemicals in the air, drinking water and food products.  The organization also examines the safety of chemical products used internationally in everyday life.

Statement of the Problem                                                                                                                   
          “The conditions of our highly mobile interconnected and economically interdependent world have made these diseases a much larger menace than in the past.  This menace is likely to grow in the future.  And it is a menace that can directly threaten every country in the world, not just developing nations. “                                                                 - Dr. Margaret Chan, Director General of WHO                                                             
           Avian influenza refers to a group of influenza viruses that primarily affect bird populations.  Most avian influenza viruses do not infect humans.  However, in rare cases, these bird viruses have infected other species, such as pigs and humans.  Avian influenza H5N1 is a virus subtype that has pandemic potential, as it may mutate and adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans.  Influenza pandemics occur because influenza viruses have adapted to infect and be passed between humans.                                               
           Currently, the world may be on the brink of another influenza pandemic.  Health experts have been monitoring the H5N1 strain of influenza viruses for many years.  The H5N1 strain first infected humans in 1997 in Hong Kong.  Eighteen cases were confirmed and six individuals died from the viral infection.  Since mid-2003, H5N1 has caused the largest and most severe outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry.  Since December 2003, more than 300 cases have been laboratory confirmed and more than half of the infected individuals have died (Table 1).  Most confirmed cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults exposed to infected bird populations.  Fortunately, the H5N1 strain of influenza does not move easily from birds to humans, and does not spread readily among humans.  However, if the H5N1 strain of influenza mutates into a readily contagious virus subtype, a pandemic could begin and all nations will be affected.       
          Once a contagious virus materializes, global spread is considered inevitable.  Measures such as border closures and travel restrictions will delay arrival of the virus in a nation, but will not stop it all together.   The influenza pandemics of the previous century circled the globe in six to nine months, even when most international travel was by boat.  Given the speed and volume of air travel at this point in time, the virus could possibly reach all continents within a three month time period.                                                      
           Infection and illness rates are expected to be higher than that observed during seasonal epidemics of influenza, since most individuals will have no immunity to the new virus.  Current projections for the next pandemic estimate that a substantial percentage of the world’s population will require some form of medical care.  Few nations have the staff, facilities, equipment, and space that will be required to manage the large numbers of people who may become ill.                                                                                                          
          The most important medical interventions for reducing illness and deaths during an influenza pandemic are vaccines and anti viral drugs.  Supplies of both will be inadequate to meet the demand in all nations at the start of a pandemic, and potentially for many months afterward.  Insufficient vaccine supplies are of particular concern, given that vaccines are considered the first line of defense for protecting populations.  Based upon present trends, many developing nations will have little to no access to vaccines for the duration of a potential influenza pandemic.
           In an address to the Pacific Health Summit on June 13th 2007, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Dr. Margaret Chan stated that another influenza pandemic could cost the world economy anywhere between 800 billion and 2 trillion dollars, depending on the virulence of the virus. The greatest source of economic loss will most likely occur due to uncoordinated efforts of the public to avoid infection.                      
           While economic loss is an important factor, the primary concern would be the loss of human life that could occur if there is influenza pandemic.  Three pandemics have occurred in the previous century, all having great death tolls.  The “Spanish Influenza” pandemic that occurred in 1918 was the most severe pandemic, as it killed between 40 and 50 million people.  It was considered one of the deadliest disease events in human history.  Subsequent pandemics such as the “Asian Influenza” in 1957 and the “Hong Kong” in 1968 were milder, killing 2 million and 1 million individuals respectively.  WHO has estimated that an H5N1 pandemic could have a death toll between 2 and 7.4 million.  The number of infected individuals, the virulence of the virus, the underlying vulnerability of affected populations, and the effectiveness of preventative measures are used to determine the estimated death toll estimates.                                                         
           The World Health Organization has acknowledged that every nation must be prepared for a potential influenza pandemic.  WHO is working closely with various public health organizations to support surveillance of circulating H5N1 influenza viruses and rapid detection of potential pandemic viruses.  The principal tasks facing the international community are two-fold:  1)Reduce the opportunities for H5N1 to mutate and improve its pandemic potential and 2) be prepared for a pandemic should these efforts fail.

Table 1: Human cases have been confirmed by WHO sanctioned laboratories in the following nations.

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History of the Problem                                                                                                      
             Avian influenza is an influenza type A virus that appears in many different sub-types classified according to the nature of the two components that make up the virus – haemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N).  Haemagglutinin is a protein found on the surface of the virus that is responsible for binding the virus to red blood cells, causing cell clumping.  Neuraminidase is an enzyme found on the viral surface that dissolves the cellular mucous thus allowing release of newly formed virus particles.  There are 16 haemagglutinin and 9 neuraminidase subtypes of influenza A virus, which give rise to hundreds of different viruses.  All combinations may be found in wild aquatic birds, while H1, H2, and H3 subtypes have been circulating in human populations for at least a century.                 
             Avian influenza in wild and domestic birds can exist in two forms.  One form has a low capacity for causing disease (low pathogenic avian influenza) and the other form causes disease easily in birds (highly pathogenic avian influenza).  The latter form is of the greatest concern, specifically the H5N1 subtype.  This highly pathogenic form of avian influenza has killed tens of millions of domestic birds and probably tens of thousands of wild birds.                                                                                                      
             Migratory waterfowl, most notably wild ducks, constitute the naturally existing reservoir of the virus.  Chicken, ducks, turkeys, and geese are susceptible to illness because the virus spreads easily via contact between infected and healthy birds.  Wild birds may carry H5N1 from one area to another via migration.  However, conditions in domestic bird production environments on farms and in rice paddy fields play a major role in secondary spread of the disease, as does the carrying of poultry from one point to another and to live bird markets.                                                                                                     
              The H5N1 virus is highly contagious among birds and infection results in a high mortality rate.  If an outbreak occurs, both infected and healthy birds are exterminated to prevent spread of the virus.  Between 1996 (when the virus was first isolated in a farmed goose in China) and mid-2006, an estimated 200 million domestic birds (out of a world population of 10 billion) have either died or been exterminated as a result of the H5N1 influenza virus.                                                                                                                
               The H5N1 virus can also affect humans.  The first documented human infections with H5N1 occurred in Hong Kong in 1997, when 18 human cases coincided with an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry farms and live markets. Virtually identical viruses caused both the human and avian cases.  Studies of the human cases determined that direct contact with diseased poultry was the cause of infection.  Further studies carried out in family members and social contacts of the patient as well as their health care teams found little evidence of human-to-human transmission of the virus.  Human infections ended following the rapid extermination of Hong Kong’s entire poultry population (approximately 1.5 million birds).  It is hypothesized that the rapid cull may have prevented a human influenza pandemic.
               To date, all evidence indicates that close contact with dead or sick birds is the principal source of human infection.  Behaviours associated with human infection include slaughtering, de-feathering, butchering, and preparation for consumption of infected birds.  In a few cases, exposure to chicken feces when children played in an area frequented by free-range poultry is thought to be the source of infection.  Swimming in bodies of water where carcasses and feces of infected birds may be another source of exposure.   Most cases have occurred in rural households where small flocks of poultry are kept.  Very few cases have been detected in assumed high-risk groups, such as commercial poultry workers, cullers, veterinarians, and health staff caring for patients without adequate protective equipment.    Currently, the H5N1 influenza virus does not cross easily from birds to humans, but through the process of genetic re-assortment, a fully transmissible pandemic virus could come into existence.                                                                                                                       
               In humans, influenza caused by the H5N1 virus follows an aggressive clinical course, with rapid deterioration and high fatality.  The progression of viral infection is poorly understood, but clinical data from new cases is beginning to clarify the clinical features of the disease, but there is still much to learn.  The incubation period of the virus is thought to range anywhere from 2 to 17 days.  WHO is currently recommending that an incubation period of seven days be used for field investigations and the monitoring of patient contacts.  The initial symptoms observed include high fever (temperature higher than 38ºC or 100.4ºF), diarrhea, vomiting, abdominal pain, chest pain, difficulty breathing, and bleeding from the gums and/or nose.  Eventually, almost all patients develop pneumonia, which is does not respond to antibiotic treatment.  Deterioration of infected patients is rapid with the time of onset to pneumonia symptoms ranging from four to 13 days.  In many cases, multi-organ dysfunction is observed, which will eventually lead to mortality.                                                                                        
              Some studies suggest that anti-viral drugs (i.e.: oseltamivir or Tamiflu) can reduce the duration of viral replication and improve the chance of survival, if they are administered within 48 hours of symptom onset.  However, oseltamivir and other anti-viral drugs were developed for treatment of seasonal influenzas, which are less severe than H5N1.  WHO has undertaken the review of optimum dosage and duration of treatment for H5N1 influenza using oseltamivir in both adults and children.  

 Past UN Actions                                                                                                                              
            In November 2005, a meeting was convened by the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Organization for Animal Health, and the World Bank to review the current status of the H5N1 avian influenza in animals and to assess the risks it posed to humans including the likelihood of the virus developing pandemic potential.  In early 2006, WHO developed and issued a Strategic Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza.  The plan outlines the key interventions required in each of the five priority areas and has a budget of $99.4 million (USD).                                                        
           

The five priority areas of the strategic action plan are as follows:

1)      Reduce human exposure to the H5N1 influenza virus – Reduce opportunities for human infection and, in so doing, reduce opportunities for a pandemic virus to emerge;

2)      Strengthen the early warning system – Ensure that affected countries, WHO, and the international community have all data and clinical specimens needed for an accurate risk assessment;

3)      Intensify rapid containment operations – Prevent the H5N1 virus from further increasing its transmissibility among humans or delay its international spread;

4)      Build capacity to cope with a pandemic – Ensure that all countries have formulated and tested pandemic response plans and that WHO is fully able to perform its leadership role during a pandemic;

5)      Coordinate global scientific research and development – Ensure that pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs are rapidly and widely available shortly after the start of a pandemic and that scientific understanding of the virus evolves quickly.

               Since the Action Plan was issued, WHO headquarters, regional offices and country offices have been initiating and undertaking activities within the framework of the strategic objectives.  The Global Influenza Programme within the Department for Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response at WHO headquarters has overall responsibility for providing technical leadership as well as coordinating the activities taking place across the organization.  WHO is working closely with partners in ministries of health and agriculture of Member States, national and regional laboratory technicians, colleagues in UN agencies, other international organizations, and non-governmental organizations as well as the wider scientific and research community.

Bloc Positions                                                                                                                       
                   Currently, there is one united position to prevent a human H5N1 influenza pandemic. Most developed nations are working towards stockpiling avian influenza vaccines and completing research about the spread of the virus.  However, the immediate focus of the individual blocks becomes slightly different at this point.  The Asian and African blocs are currently focusing on containing both avian and human cases of the influenza, via public education of hygiene issues and culling of potentially infected bird populations.  All other blocs (North and South America, Australia, and Europe) are more focused on preventing the entrance of avian influenza into individual nations and pandemic preparedness.

Questions a Resolution Must Answer                                                                                           
        These are just a few questions, but they cover a wide range and are important to keep in mind when writing a resolution.

1)      How can a pandemic be prevented using resources from all nations?

2)      How will educational prevention be implemented in each nation?

3)      How will vaccine stocks and anti-viral drugs be allocated internationally?

4)      What research can be done to prevent an influenza pandemic?

5)      How can bird culls be kept to a minimum, while minimizing infection?

6)      What other organizations will be involved to deal with the economic issues presented by avian influenza and the potential for a pandemic?

 Some questions and suggestions to guide your research

1)      How does your nation feel it is best to control the spread of avian influenza?

2)      How will your nation prioritize the important goals related to combating avian influenza?  Ie: education, pandemic preparedness, production or attainment of vaccine stocks, etc.

3)      What elements need to be included in public education?

4)      What funding or equipment does your nation need?

5)      What funding or equipment is your nation willing to provide?

6)      What role does your nation play in the WHO strategic action plan for pandemic influenza?

Resources for your research                                

1)      WHO Constitution - http://www.who.int/about/en/

2)      International Health Regulations - http://www.who.int/csr/ihr/en/

3)      Ten Things You Need to Know About Pandemic Influenza – www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html

4)      Pandemics: Working together for an effective and equitable response. Speech by Dr. Margaret Chan. www.who.int/dg/speeches/2007/20070613_seattle/en/print.html.

5)      Antigenic and genetic characteristics of H5N1 viruses and candidate H5N1 vaccine viruses developed for potential use as pre-pandemic vaccines  http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/summaryH520070403.pdf

6)      H5N1 avian influenza:  Timeline of major events.  http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/Timeline_07_Aug27.pdf

7)      Bird Flu – The Chronology of a Disease. www.fao.org/avianflu/en/chronology/html

8)      Avian influenza (“bird flu”) – Fact Sheet www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en/index.html

9)      Avian Influenza – Background                             www.fao.org/avianflu/en/background.html

10)  Avian influenza – Food safety issues www.who.int/foodsafety/micro/avian/en/print.html

11)  Avian Influenza Glossary                                   www.fao.org/avianflu/en/glossary.html

12)  WHO Activities in Avian Influenza and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness.  January – December 2006. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/WHOactivitiesavianinfluenza/en/index.html

13)   The Role of National Influenza Centres (NICs) during Interpandemic, Pandemic Alert and Pandemic Periods http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/RoleNICsMay07/en/index.html

14)  Avian Influenza, Including Influenza A (H5N1), in Humans: WHO Interim Infection Control Guideline for Health Care Facilities http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/infectioncontrol1/en/index.html

 

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