Commission on Sustainable Development

Water and Global Warming

Author: Alex Colangelo

 

While the extent of future climate change can be moderated, we are beyond the point of no return.  Dangerous climate change is now inevitable.[1]

 

The Committee

 

Established in December, 1992, the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) was created as a functional committee of the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)[2] to ensure effective follow-up of the 1992 Earth Summit.[3]   Not only is the CSD charged with reviewing progress in implementing the commitments of international players to various agreements, its mandate also includes acting as a high level forum on sustainable development.[4]  To that end, the Commission has adopted a multi-year programme of work, which for the 2007/2008 cycle includes climate change, while the 2008/2009 cycle will consider more closely the problems associated with drought and desertification.

 

Thus, at this current session, the Commission will consider a topic that integrates themes from both the current cycle, and the one upcoming.  The role of climate change on the world’s water supply is one that deserves careful consideration, and a broad discussion of challenges and possible solutions.

 

Background

 

Climate Change

 

The natural greenhouses gases occurring in the Earth’s troposphere act as a blanket, which assist in the regulation of the planet’s climate.[5]  These greenhouse gases trap thermal radiation in the atmosphere and ensure a comfortable climate.[6]  “Climate change” refers “to a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”[7]  The change in the earth’s climate is due to pollutants that are emitted from human sources, which change the composition of the atmosphere.[8]  These pollutants intensify the greenhouse effect, preventing a greater amount of heat from escaping the atmosphere, and thereby raise the Earth’s average temperature.[9]

 

The Kyoto Protocol covers six greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.[10]  The three greenhouse gases of primary concern are carbon monoxide, methane and nitrous oxide, as they are most closely associated to human activity.[11]  Carbon dioxide is emitted by the burning of fossil fuels, methane is expelled when vegetation is burned, digested or rots (as a result of cattle farming or waste dumps), while chemical fertilizers are a source of nitrous oxide emissions.[12]

 

Human activity has had a great impact on the concentration of these gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.  Global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from about 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times to 379 ppm in 2005, an increase of about 35%.[13]  The concentration of methane has increased from a pre-industrial value of 715 ppm to 1774 in 2005.[14]  Finally, the atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide has increased from pre-industrial levels of 270 ppm to 319 ppm in 2005.[15]

 

The effects of these emissions have been a change of climate.[16]  The average global temperature has risen by .7 degrees Celsius since 1900 and the pace of change is quickening.[17]  The 1990s were the hottest on record since the 14^th century.[18]  The extent of snow has decreased by about 10% since the 1960s[19], while the average global sea level has risen by 10 to 20 cm during the 20^th century.[20]

 

The effects of increasing emissions on the future of the Earth’s climate, meanwhile, appear bleak.  If fossil fuels begin to be phased out immediately, the concentration of carbon dioxide is expected to be approximately 540 ppm in 2100.  Should there by no effort to phase out fossil fuels, the level of carbon dioxide is expected to reach 970 ppm.[21]  Global temperatures, meanwhile, are predicted to rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, depending on the course taken by modern society.[22]  Even stabilizing emissions in order to limit the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at 450 ppm would still result in an increase of global temperature of about 2 degrees Celsius.[23]  Increasing temperatures will result in extreme environmental events.  Droughts and floods will become more common, alpine glaciers will begin to disappear and sea levels are projected to rise by between .09 and .88m.[24]  The effects of these changes to our climate will be felt for hundreds of years.

 

Importance and Dangers of Water

 

Climate change, meanwhile, will have an enormous impact on the availability of water and its effects on the lives of people worldwide.  Water is essential to the life and health of the global population.  The lack of water is a devastating condition that affects millions of people around the world.  Each year, 1.8 million children die due to unclean water and poor sanitation.[25]  Meanwhile, 2.6 billion people do not have access to basic sanitation and 1.1 billion people lack access to clean water.[26]  Problems with access to water are concentrated on the poor.  While Europe enjoys more than 200 litres of water per person per day and the United States enjoys over 400 litres, billions live on less than 5 litres per day.[27]  The economic costs associated with health spending, productivity losses, and labour diversions equals about 5% of GDP in sub-saharan Africa.[28]

 

Climate change, meanwhile, “is transforming the nature of global water insecurity.”[29]  Hydrological patterns that determine the availability of water will be disrupted by global warming, as many water-stressed areas will get even less water.[30]  Water flows will become less predictable and more extreme.  This is projected to lead to reductions in water in East and Southern Africa, which will also disrupt the production of food.  As water insecurity increases, poverty and malnutrition will increase as well, with estimates suggesting that malnutrition stemming from climate change could increase by 15%-26% by 2080, increasing the number of malnourished by between 75 and 125 million people.[31]  The agricultural losses will exert its effects beyond rural areas, and transmit poverty into urban areas as well.[32] 

 

Glaciers, meanwhile act as water banks in many parts of the world, sending water flows to agricultural producers in lowland areas.[33]  These glaciers are now melting at an accelerating rate, which will increase the risk of flooding in the spring and of water shortages in the summer.[34]  For example, in Peru, where glaciers have lost almost a quarter of their area in the last 30 years, glaciers that once provided the sole source of fresh water during the dry season are no longer replenishing themselves, and straining the country’s irrigation system.[35]

 

Climate change will also bring with it an intensification of extreme climate events.  Since 1970, mean ocean temperatures have increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit.[36]  It has been suggested that the warmer oceans have caused an increase in the intensity of hurricanes worldwide.  A warmer climate also translates into an increase in water vapour in the air.[37]  In the 1970s, there was an average of 10 Cateogory 4 and 5 hurricanes annually worldwide.[38]  Since 1990, the annual average is now 18.[39]  Monsoon patterns in South Asia will be disrupted as there is projected to be more rain, but overall fewer rainy days and drought will afflict a greater proportion of the population.  While fluctuations of 10% are known to cause severe flooding or drought, estimates suggest a change of 25% to 100%.[40]  Approximately 200 million people annually from developing countries were affected by climate-related disasters during the 1990s.[41]  Since 2000, the growth rate in the number of people affected by climate-related disasters has doubled.[42]

 

The rise of sea levels due to climate change, meanwhile, will further undermine water security.  In a 2007 report, the World Bank estimated that global warming could cause a sea level rise of between one and three metres in this century, while an unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could cause a rise of five metres.[43]   The rise in sea level will threaten the coastal areas of low-lying populations and cause the hundreds of millions of people in developing countries to be displaced this century.[44]  Over half of Bangladesh lies at less than five metres above sea level.[45]  Meanwhile, Greenpeace suggests that if current warming trends continue, London Bangkok and New York will end up below sea level.[46]  This would also be accompanied by economic and ecological damage of great severity.  Rising sea levels will also increase salinization and reduce freshwater in the river systems of Bangladesh, Egypt and Thailand, intensifying the problems discussed above.  Despite the potentially catastrophic changes in store, the report found that “there is little evidence that the international community has seriously considered the implications for population location and infrastructure planning in many developing countries.”[47] 

 

Policy Options

 

Policy options will have to consider two themes: mitigation (limiting the effects of climate change by reigning in its causes) and adaptation (changing behaviour in order to live with the climate change scenario).  The following should be considered, while keeping in mind the two themes:

 

1.      Post-Kyoto[48], should countries set a target for ceilings on emissions, or a ceiling on temperature increase?  How will emissions and climate change affect the access and use of water?

 

i.                     Some developed countries are pressing for the next protocol to set a stabilization limit of about 550 ppm (almost double pre-industrial levels), which would lead to an increase in average temperature of between 1.5 to 3.2 degrees Celsius (p. 160)

 

ii.                   The European Union, meanwhile, is arguing for a temperature-based target of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which would require a 15%-30% reduction below 1990 emissions, rising to 80% reduction in 2050

 

iii.                  Success depends on not just the developed world adhering, but developing countries as well

 

iv.                 Some countries are dragging their feet on establishing targets at all.  Consider the economic incentives to resist emissions targets:

·        Costs to economic growth in cutting emissions.[49]  Developing countries are particularly sensitive to attempts to limit their economic development in order to curtail emissions.[50]

·        Access to alternative sources of energy and water may be cheaper for the economy.  For example, the United States has turned an eye to Alberta to satiate its energy needs[51], and there is also concern that Canada may at some point begin bulk water exports to the U.S.[52] 

·        What are the incentives to curb emissions or implement other energy and water saving policies when nations have access to cheap alternatives to the detriment of the environment?

·        Global warming will affect countries in an inequitable way.  Some countries have much more to lose than others.  How do we engage those countries that believe they will be better off economically by not taking action, or those that worry that curtailing emissions will stymie economic and industrial growth?

 

2.      What are some ways that countries could succeed in containing greenhouse gases and temperatures?

 

i.                     Carbon taxes

·        Would provide tax base that could be reinvested into green technology

·        Would provide an economic incentive for businesses to cut wasteful practices

·        A drawback in that it would make some products more expensive as the costs of producing some goods would increase

 

ii.                   Markets for tradable emission permits

·        Would work in conjunction with carbon emission limits

·        Businesses that pollute more than their allowances can buy credits from those that pollute less than their allowances

·        Further economic incentives to cut pollution

·        Several trading systems in place, including the European Union’s

·        Enforcement and monitoring can be challenging and costly

 

iii.                  Incentives for clean technology

 

iv.                 Technology transfers to developing countries

·        Developed countries could share technical and logistical information and expertise with areas in need

 

3.      How will countries adapt and cope to climate change with respect to water?

 

i.                     Recognize water management is an integral part of poverty reduction strategies

·        Water conservation measures

·        Improved planning and preparedness for droughts and floods

·        Improved water quality protection

·        Enhanced monitoring efforts

·        Improved procedures for equitable allocation of water

 

ii.                   Investment and aid for infrastructure

·        Forecasting and early warning systems in place are essential to protecting people against weather-related disasters and necessary in order to manage water needs for agriculture

·        Increased water storage would help cope with changing hydrological parameters

·        Control structures such as river bed deepening and widening, dikes, dams, etc.

 

iii.                  Change of use, activity or location

·        Consider changes in land-use planning, eg. Regulation of development in flood hazard areas by allowing only low-value infrastructure

·        Adapt farming by planting crops that are better suited to drier climate[53]

·        “resettlement is neither popular nor desirable, but it may eventually become inevitable”[54]

 

Further Reading

 

1. Council of Canadians, (http://www.canadians.org/).

 

2. David Suzuki Foundation, Climate Change: Impacts and Solutions, (http://www.davidsuzuki.org/Climate_Change/).

 

3. Dialogue on Water and Climate, “Climate changes the water rules – How water managers can cope with today’s climate variability and tomorrow’s climate change”, (http://www.waterandclimate.org/UserFiles/File/changes.pdf).

 

4. Dialogue on Water and Climate, “Coping with Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change in Water Management: A Scoping Paper”, (http://www.waterandclimate.org/UserFiles/File/scoping.pdf).

 

5. Greenpeace International: Stop climate change, (http://www.greenpeace.org/international/campaigns/climate-change).

 

6. United Nations Development Programme, “Beyond Scarcity, Power, poverty and the global water crisis”, 2006, (http://hdr.undp.org/hdr2006/).

 

7. UN Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, World Water Assessment Programme, World Water Development Report 2, “Water: A shared responsibility”, (http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/wwdr2/table_contents.shtml).

 

8. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, (http://unfccc.int/2860.php).

 

9. World Bank, “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis”, February, 2007, (http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf).